In a world with safe and routine orbital travel, what (if any) will be the role for suborbital travel? Will companies focusing on suborbital travel be forced to develop orbital travel capabilities, or will there be a large enough market for suborbital travel that firms may specialize in different niches?
Thanks for reading the letter and for your questions! I think you're asking the key existential question for suborbital providers. For now, I think there are markets for both. With suborbital travel costing ~$450K per seat and orbital more like ~$55M, there will be those wishing to travel to space but won't pay the orbital flight costs. However orbital travel is a much more significant experience and as it becomes more affordable, I think suborbital trips will be threatened. Plus suborbital vehicles don't scale up to orbital vehicles, the difference in capability is too extreme. So if the market moves entirely to orbital travel over time, suborbital companies will need to develop entirely new systems
In a world with safe and routine orbital travel, what (if any) will be the role for suborbital travel? Will companies focusing on suborbital travel be forced to develop orbital travel capabilities, or will there be a large enough market for suborbital travel that firms may specialize in different niches?
Thanks for reading the letter and for your questions! I think you're asking the key existential question for suborbital providers. For now, I think there are markets for both. With suborbital travel costing ~$450K per seat and orbital more like ~$55M, there will be those wishing to travel to space but won't pay the orbital flight costs. However orbital travel is a much more significant experience and as it becomes more affordable, I think suborbital trips will be threatened. Plus suborbital vehicles don't scale up to orbital vehicles, the difference in capability is too extreme. So if the market moves entirely to orbital travel over time, suborbital companies will need to develop entirely new systems
Another really informative posting, Ian. You have a nice balance between pure science and business and this makes your writing particularly useful.
Thank you Peter, really appreciate the kind words!